昨日发布的一项研究报告显示，中国奢侈品销售的迅速增长，将带动整个行业明年恢复增长，而该行业2009年的下滑幅度，将没有预期的那么严重。
Fast-growing luxury goods sales in China will return the industry to growth next year, while the decline in 2009 will be less severe than expected, according to a study published yesterday.
贝恩咨询公司(Bain & Co)预计，今年奢侈品销售额将下降8%，强于4月份下降10%的预测，而明年将增长1%，至1530亿欧元（合2280亿美元），一改持续两年的萎缩局面。
Bain & Co, the consultancy, expects luxury goods sales this year to fall 8 per cent – instead of the 10 per cent forecast in April – and grow 1 per cent next year to €153bn ($228bn), after two years of contraction.
贝恩驻米兰合伙人克劳迪亚•达皮奇奥(Claudia D'Arpizio)表示，整个行业已经触底反弹：“……市场正在企稳。打折和降价促销的现象正在减少，而更多的迹象表明消费者信心正日益增强。明年的增幅不会很大，但发展方向是好的。”
Claudia D'Arpizio, Milan-based Bain & Co partner, said the bottom had been reached: “ . . . markets are stabilising. We are seeing less discounting and markdowns and more signs of increasing consumer confidence. Growth will be timid in 2010 but it's movement in the right direction.”
今年，中国及其它新兴市场（尤其是韩国）的增长，减轻了欧洲和北美等成熟市场滑坡的影响。
The decline this year in the mature markets of Europe and North America has been mitigated by growth in China and other emerging markets, notably South Korea.
上述研究与一些主要奢侈品公司谨慎乐观的态度相呼应。
The study mirrors the cautious optimism of some big luxury goods companies.
英国巴宝莉集团(Burberry)上周发布的第二季度销售业绩强于预期。
Last week, Burberry, the British group, reported second-quarter sales which were better than expected.
意大利珠宝商宝格丽(Bulgari)本月表示，受亚洲需求上升的拉动，今年下半年的销售情况有所好转。
This month, Bulgari, the Italian jeweller, said sales had improved in the second half of the the year, thanks to higher demand in Asia.
贝恩预计，2009年美国奢侈品销售额将同比下降16%，日本和欧洲则将分别下降10%和8%。
Bain forecast sales in 2009 would fall 16 per cent in the US, 10 per cent in Japan and 8 per cent in Europe compared with 2008.
但这些下降将在一定程度上被亚洲10%的预期增长所抵消。在亚洲的增长中，中国的贡献度为12%。
But these falls would be partially offset by 10 per cent projected growth in Asia, of which China accounts for 12 per cent.
达皮奇奥表示：“亚洲及其它新兴市场购买意愿强烈的奢侈品消费者，推动了2009年的销售情况。他们一直看好品牌。”
“Aspirational luxury shoppers in Asia and other emerging markets are fuelling sales in 2009,” said Ms D'Arpizio. “They remain bullish on brands.”
不过，尽管中国将在消费者数量方面领跑整个奢侈品市场，但中国消费者的人均消费额要赶上成熟市场，仍需假以时日。
But although China will dominate the luxury goods market in terms of number of consumers, it will take some time before the amount they spend equals that of the mature markets.
贝恩表示，预计中国今年的奢侈品销售额将达到66亿欧元，低于美国的440亿欧元、欧洲的590亿欧元、以及日本的190亿欧元。
Chinese spending on luxury goods is forecast at €6.6bn this year, against €44bn in the US, €59bn in Europe and €19bn in Japan, according to Bain.
网络销售是另一块增长领域，贝恩预计，今年这部分销售额将同比增长20%，但仍不到总销售额的3%。
Online sales are another growth area, with Bain predicting a 20 per cent rise this year compared with 2008, but the channel still accounts for less than 3 per cent of total sales.
珠宝和手表等最昂贵的奢侈品境况最为糟糕，预计今年销售额将下降18%。由于消费者推迟了购买，服装领域也颇受冲击，预计销售额将下降11%。
Jewellery and watches – the most expensive luxury items – have fared the worst, with a forecast sales decline of 18 per cent this year. Clothes have also suffered as consumers defer purchases, resulting in a forecast 11 per cent sales drop.
贝恩表示，事实证明，配饰和皮具是最能抵抗经济低迷的商品，预计今年销售额仅会下降1%。
Accessories and leather goods have proved most resistant to the economic downturn and are expected to fall just 1 per cent this year, according to Bain.
贝恩认为，眼下，打扮夸张眩目的时代已经过去。“设计和材质低调的趋势可能会持续数年。”
The consultancy believes the era of ostentatious “bling” is out for the time being: “Understatement in design and materials is likely to last for several years into the new decade.”
