根据安永统计俱乐部(Ernst & Young Item Club)的季度预测，经济已经走出“借债的十年”，进入“痛苦调整的十年”。
The economy has moved out of a decade of debt and into a decade of painful readjustment, according to the quarterly forecast from the Ernst & Young Item Club.
该俱乐部表示，企业界的乐观情绪已开始回升，并预测，将于本月晚些时候发布的英国第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据将显示，英国已经摆脱衰退。
Item said business optimism had started to improve and it expected the UK to pull out of recession when fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures were released later this month.
但它表示，温和复苏是受到补充库存、旧车换现金计划以及人们所预期的增值税调高的推动。在这些因素失去作用后，短期内很难看到增长将从何而来。
But it said the modest recovery was driven by restocking, the car scrappage scheme and the anticipated value added tax increase. Once these effects had worn off, it was difficult to see where growth was going to come from in the short term, Item said.
它预测，英国GDP今年将很难实现1%的增长，利率很可能会在进入2010年后的很长一段时间里保持不变。
It forecast that UK GDP would struggle to reach 1 per cent this year, with interest rates likely to remain flat well into 2010.
英国曾多年依靠国内支出和借债，目前，它需要把重心重新转向储蓄和出口。
After years of relying on domestic spending and borrowing, the UK now needed to rebalance towards saving and exporting.
该俱乐部首席经济学家彼得•史宾塞(Peter Spencer)表示：“英国面临着又一个具有挑战性的年度。我们已经不再有条件借债——我们现在需要偿还上十年积累下来的巨额债务。”
Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor at Item, said: “The UK is facing another challenging year. We are no longer in a position to borrow – the massive debts we racked up in the last decade now need to be repaid.
“消费者手头的现金已所剩无几——消费支出今年可能将仅增长0.4%。”
“The consumer is completely cashed out – with consumer spending likely to increase by just 0.4 per cent this year.”
该俱乐部表示，经济增长可能有赖于英国出口商利用好全球经济好转所带来的机会。英国必须恢复其海外投资模式的活力，并开始向中国等国出售商品。与其主要竞争对手相比，英国在中国的市场份额异常之低。
Item said growth in the economy was likely to depend on UK exporters taking advantage of the upturn in the global economy. It was vital that the UK rejuvenated its overseas investment model and started selling to countries such as China, in which the UK has an exceptionally low market share compared with its main competitors.
事实上，该俱乐部表示，其预测报告中的唯一亮点是，它认为出口水平将在2009年初下降后大幅回升。
Indeed, Item said the only real bright spot in its forecast was that it saw exports rebuilding sharply after the falls of early 2009.
