人们越来越担心世界经济危机远未结束。
Concerns are growing that the world hasn't seen the last of the economic crisis.
周四,对美国经济的担心以及欧洲债务危机正在蔓延的迹象令市场一片恐慌,导致道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)一度跌破10000点大关。
Jitters about the U.S. economy and signs that a debt crisis in Europe is spreading roiled markets on Thursday, driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly below the 10000 mark.
最新报告显示美国首次申请失业救济的人数出人意料地上升。受此影响,已因动荡的欧洲股市而忧心忡忡的美国股市投资者进一步感到不安。十分关键的一月就业报告将于周五出炉。失业救济申领人数的上涨再次引发了人们对美国经济恢复力量的担心。
U.S. stock investors, waking up to a turbulent European trading session, were further unnerved by an unexpected rise in the latest report on initial claims for jobless benefits. Ahead of a key January employment report due out Friday, the claims numbers revived on-again, off-again concerns about the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.
由此导致的股市抛售拖累道指在交易结束之前一度跌破10000点的重要心理关口,最终努力以10002.18收盘,下跌268.37点,跌幅达2.6%。这是自去年四月以来最大的单日跌幅。其中金融股大幅下挫,领跌美国股市。
The resulting selloff took the Dow below the psychologically important 10000 level in the final moments of trading. It managed to finish at 10002.18, but nevertheless had a 2.6% decline, led by big drops in financial stocks. The 268.37-point fall was its biggest one-day loss since last April.
大宗商品也应声下跌,部分原因是人们预计欧洲债券市场的麻烦将会拖累全球经济复苏。原油跌近5%;因美元走强以及投资者从更波动的投资中撤出,通常在危机中上涨的金价也下跌4.4%。由于投资者认为债券相对安全,美国国债价格迅速上涨。
Commodities, too, took a hit, partly on expectations that the troubles in the European bond market will create a drag on the global economic recovery. Crude oil fell nearly 5% and even gold prices -- which usually rise in times of crisis -- fell 4.4% in response to a stronger dollar and as investors pulled back from more volatile investments. U.S. Treasury prices rose sharply as investors sought out the bonds' relative safety.
欧洲股市和债市同样阴云密布,英国、德国和法国市场均下跌2%以上,显示出人们担心包括葡萄牙、爱尔兰、希腊和西班牙(PIGS)在内的欧洲国家将无力承担已升至国内生产总值约10%预算赤字。人们因此担心存在十年的欧洲货币联盟可能破裂。
European stocks and bonds also swooned, with markets in the U.K., Germany and France all losing more than 2%. Behind the turmoil are worries that a collection of European countries including Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, known derisively as PIGS, won't be able to finance budget deficits that have ballooned to around 10% of gross domestic product. That has sparked fears that Europe's decade-old monetary union could unravel.
悲观气氛于周四开始笼罩股市。尽管欧盟已于前一天通过了希腊的预算计划,但葡萄牙债券销售成绩不佳以及西班牙提高预算赤字的预测同时动摇了市场信心。希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙主权债务违约担保成本跃至新高,欧元兑美元汇率跌至八个月最低点,兑日圆价值下跌3%。
This sentiment spilled over into markets on Thursday. Although the European Commission had signed off on Greece's budget plans the day before, confidence was shaken at the same time by a stumble in a Portuguese bond sale and Spain's raising of its budget-deficit forecasts. The cost of insuring against the default of sovereign debt from Greece, Portugal and Spain soared to new highs, and the euro slid to an eight-month low against the dollar and lost 3% of its value against the Japanese yen.
许多人开始担心希腊可能会成为下一个“次贷”,暗指其形式起初显得平静但迅速蔓延。
Many are beginning to worry that Greece could be the next 'subprime' -- referring to a situation that appears initially to be contained but that quickly spreads.
大型债券管理公司太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)首席执行长埃尔埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)说,希腊只是更广泛问题的例子之一。全世界各国政府大规模举债,对抗由多个国家房地产市场崩溃导致的银行系统出现的大范围问题。埃尔埃利安接着说,我们正在饱尝苦果。这一现象通常在新兴市场出现,发达国家并不常见。
'Greece is simply an illustration of a much broader issue,' says Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer at giant bond manager Pimco. Governments around the world borrowed heavily to counter the massive problems in the banking system brought on by the collapse of real-estate markets in many countries. 'Now we're living through the consequences,' says Mr. El-Erian, adding, 'It's a movie we tended to watch in emerging markets and don't often see in advanced economies.'
尽管人们预计希腊等国最终不会违约,被欧盟中的德国及其他健康经济体所救,但欧元的下跌反映出投资者倾向于选择一条他们认为安全的路。他们把资金撤出欧洲,投资于相对安全的美元、日圆以及日本和美国的短期政府债券,使欧元面临下行的压力。
While expectations are that countries like Greece will ultimately not default and instead be bailed out by Germany and other healthy economies in the European Union, the decline in the euro reflects investors electing to take what they see as the less risky route. They pulled money out of Europe and parked it in the relative safety of the dollar, yen and short-term government debt in Japan and the U.S., putting downward pressure on the euro.
交易员说,上述情况在周四得到显现,因为比利时和奥地利等地的债券市场也承受了压力。另外,作为政府债券主要持有人的欧洲银行,其股价也遭受重挫。
That came to the fore on Thursday as bond markets in places like Belgium and Austria also came under pressure, traders say. In addition, European banks, which are major holders of government debt, saw their share prices take big hits.
巴克莱资本公司(Barclays Capital)股市策略师奈普(Barry Knapp)说,我们显然是进入了欧洲债务危机向系统性危机演变的阶段。
'We've definitely entered the stage where the European debt crisis is becoming systemic,' says Barry Knapp, equity market strategist at Barclays Capital.
美国财政部(U.S. Treasury Department)和美联储(Federal Reserve)的官员一直在密切关注希腊的情况,并在很大程度上将其视为一个地区性问题,认为欧洲各国政府可以处理。如果全球市场继续同步下跌,他们的这种想法可能会发生改变。在加拿大伊魁特(Iqaluit)举办、周五开幕的七国集团财长会议上,相关话题可能会摆上桌面。
Officials at the U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Reserve have been watching developments in Greece closely, and have seen the problems largely as a regional issue that European governments can handle. If markets continue to sink globally, that could shift the thinking. The topic is likely to come up at meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers that starts Friday in Iqaluit, Canada.
多年来,希腊、西班牙等国的经济增长速度一直位居欧元区前列,低廉的利率催生了建筑和消费支出领域的膨胀。但金融危机暴露了这些国家长期以来的财政约束缺失和结构性缺陷。
For years, Greece, Spain and others were among the fastest growing economies in the euro zone, with low interest rates fueling a boom in construction and consumer spending. Yet the financial crisis has exposed the countries' chronic lack of fiscal discipline and longstanding structural deficiencies.
在过去,这些国家可以通过贬值本币来应对这些危机,但这在欧元区16个成员国当中是不可行的。各国政府必须要满足的各种苛严条件,或许只会让它们失业率高企的情况进一步加剧,并对其中期经济增长构成阻碍。
In the past, the countries could respond to such crises by devaluing their currencies -- an option not on the table for members of the 16-member euro zone. The austerity measures that the governments are being forced to pursue will likely only worsen their already high unemployment and thwart economic growth in the medium term.
另外,随着问题的扩散,控制起来难度会高得多。例如,西班牙是欧元区第四大经济体,规模接近希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰总和的两倍。德国和其他欧元区国家私下计议向希腊提供的援助,或许根本无法应用到西班牙身上,因为它的体量实在太大。
In addition, as the problem spreads, it becomes that much more difficult to manage. Spain, for example, is the euro zone's fourth-largest economy and nearly twice as big as Greece, Portugal and Ireland combined. That likely makes it simply too big to undertake the kind of bailout that Germany and other euro-zone countries have privately been contemplating for Greece.
为让人们相信欧元区有能力渡过危机,欧洲中央银行(European Central Bank)行长特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)周四为欧元做了热情辩护。
In an effort to shore up confidence in the euro zone's ability to weather the crisis, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on Thursday delivered an impassioned defense of the common currency.
在欧洲央行的月度新闻发布会上,特里谢精神之饱满一反常态。他强调说,虽然某些成员国存在财政危机,但整个欧元区预算赤字占国内生产总值的比例平均为6%,远远低于美国和日本高达两位数的赤字水平。
Mr. Trichet, in an uncharacteristically feisty appearance at the ECB's monthly news conference, stressed that despite the fiscal woes in some member states, the average budget deficit for the euro zone as a whole, at 6% of gross domestic product, is well below the double-digit gaps in the US and Japan.
特里谢说,人们并不一定非常熟知欧元区所具备的稳定性。
'It is not necessarily very well known the kind of solidity' that the euro zone has, Mr. Trichet said.
周四市场的震荡在一定程度上是因为信贷违约掉期(CDS)市场出现了较大的波动。在这个市场,交易员可以为某个国家违约的可能性押下重注。希腊和葡萄牙CDS价格大涨,反映市场对这两个国家违约的担忧加剧,于是投资者的警惕心跟着提高。这种情况通常会引发投资者买入更多CDS。
Thursday's frenzy was whipped up in part by big moves in the credit-default swap markets, where traders can take big bets on the likelihood of a country defaulting. As CDS on debt of Greece and Portugal soared, indicating more worries about a default, investors became more alarmed. That often sets off a cycle of more CDS buying.
让人不无忧虑的是,欧洲各国政府财政危机引起的担忧,已经开始传染到欧洲银行和企业赖以融资的其他信贷市场。
In a worrisome sign, concerns about the fiscal woes of European governments are starting to infect corners of the credit markets that European banks and companies rely on to raise money.
即使是像英国巴克莱集团(Barclays PLC)和德国的德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG)这样的银行,其债务违约担保成本也出现了上升。
Even banks like the U.K.'s Barclays PLC and Germany's Deutsche Bank AG saw their debt-default insurance costs rise.
太平洋投资管理公司的埃尔埃利安说,欧洲正处在一个三阶段危机的第二个阶段。
Pimco's Mr. El-Erian says Europe is in the second stage of a three-stage crisis.
在第一个阶段,投资者认为希腊的问题可控。现在的第二个阶段,担忧情绪扩散到比利时等此前人们认为不太会受影响的其他国家。
The first stage was when investors viewed Greece's troubles as contained. Now, in the second stage, worries are spreading to countries that previously hadn't been considered vulnerable,such as Belgium.
他说,在第三个阶段,德国等欧洲核心国家“开始感受到”债务危机的影响。
'Phase three is where core Europe starts to feel it,' such as in Germany, he says.